There better be a correlation or I'm psychic to the tune of a couple hundred accurate predictions last year!
The reason that the USGS is suspected to be the be all and end all on earthquake investigation is that most could, would, NEVER believe that anyone without the degrees and papers and salary to back up private research, that the research is invalid or holds little weight.
There are many examples that can be cited, Tesla, Galileo, (JESUS?), on and on.
I had Vanuatu posted for up to 6.8 magnitude and the event happened in twenty days precisely on the N Hebrides Trench. TWENTY DAYS>>>
Hundreds of others of examples to cite which are logged and dated and provable. Perhaps the difficult task of correlating the precise lats and longs make comparison modelling a challenge. Given the seriousness of the problem of lack of warnings or warning theories, checking and confirming the predictions is the easy part. Making the forecasts is the real hard part.
If one were to do a study (in hindsight) it would be found that almost all significant earthquakes presented foreshocks before the events in question. I have seen studies by Paul Reasonberg that say the chance of an event over five mag following an earlier event is 7.5 percent. A figure that n.i.c.e. has proven can be vastly improved upon on SOME STUDIED FAULTS.
N.I.C.E. studies ALL faults that show substantial activity with the Ring of Fire the primary study area (for Tsunami warning purposes).
Some day people will be killed on mass by an earthquake with no warning. It's a fact. History proves it.
As long as the USGS says that earthquakes can't be predicted, the public will continue to Baa Baa Baa believe them. As long as BOB and DON continue to say that they aren't yey forecastable they (to them) won't be. AS LONG AS N.I.C.E. KEEPS MAKING FORECASTS EARHQUAKES WILL BE FORECAST ACCURATELY. When I post for a BIG ONE and it happens in Hollister or Oregon or Tofino, then people will shake up and take notice, like when the first phone call was made by Alexander Graham Bell or the moons of Jupiter were documented by telescope by Galileo. (placed under house arrest by the church).The more significant the discovery and research, the more substantial the resistance to it's validity.
Contrary to statements I have read saying that Caltech and others have not can not and won't be able to forecast eathquakes now or any time in the foreseeable future. There have been signs that were recognized by seismologists (LOMA PRIETA 3 HRS NOTICE!!!) The fact is that they don't want the ability because it can cause all types of civil, legal moral and logistical problems.
WHY then can some amateur do what the BIG GUNS say can't be done accurately?
Beacause I'm not bound by internal policies, threats of funding disruption or any other imposed restriction. The only thing I cant do is tell the USGS to ---- --- when they say what I can do can't be done. That's out of respect for you and not them.
Next time there's a big one and someone says disd anyone predict it?, Watch for a reply by n.i.c.e. saying Event WAS forecast by N.I.C.E.
People ARE getting used to it as am I.
If you could make dozens of accurate forecasts a month and few misses, wouldn't it start to get to you hearing the same thing time and time again? Earthqukes can't be forecast?
HOGS CANT BE WASHED EITHER...mb.