Hi Martin,

Interesting commentary today. We don't get a lot of attention in my area regarding earthquake safety measures because we don't have the same population levels as they do in SF and the East Bay Areas. When the earthquake arrives they anticipate Sonoma County will be completely cut off due to damaged roads, bridges and freeway systems. Its gonna get kinda hairy for awhile. Theres a distinct silence from the scientific community in regard to the Rodgers Creek Fault. About five years ago they did a detonation along the fault and found the waves travel like a hot dog, rather than a doughnut. So what does that tell us? The intensities along the faultlines may be greater than having a singlular epicenter where the waves go out in a circle. It might mean more extensions of a single fault may move rather than just one segment. But all in all, its serious stuff.

Damage mitigation sounds all well and good, but who has the money for that? NSF doesn't fund mitigation. They want the real dirt, not buildings. FEMA doesn't wanna help until after the fact. Though in flood control they've worked wonders, moving entire cities out of flood zones after major flood events. You can't mitigate even one moderately sized city and everyone knows that, but what they don't realize is that you can educate a lot of people in all sizes of cities by using what gets used for everything else, the media. But unless there's an earthquake underway and facts to deliver, most of the scientists I've met don't find it the kind of dress event they wish to attend. Darn it all. I love to dress for TV.

I asked the Parkfield Group if they wanted to do a PBS Special called Parkfield Revisited, they turned me down. I thought it would be great to bring out all the scientists of note and let them tell the common person about what they've been studying so long and their expectations for the future. I wanted to invite the Governor and have a party on the deck of the Parkfield Inn. I thought it was a great educational opportunity. One where the emphasis on preparedness could be delivered in a very nice way. See what I mean?

Now, on the hot topic of your forecasts Martin. If you do nothing else, you are practicing and making what works, work better. Most people don't wish to sit in the hot seat, so they don't issue predictions for fear they'll be wrong. Don't be distracted, keep at it, I've got these Pom Pom's at home and when the hits come in, a do a little victory cheer. Kinda Kewl.

As the saying goes, "You cannot succeed or fail, unless you try."

:-) Petra