Hi Martin,

Sometime ago I had a short impromptu meeting with Alan Lindh and he clued me into a thought process that I now understand fully. He was showing me some various papers on the aspect of preparedness and organizations that help when the disasters occur. Through this I came to know people have to be warmed up to the idea of receiving forecasts. So the interest has to be kindled just as when you start a fire in the fireplace. It kind of reminds me of people's reactions when they said they were going to start flouridating water.

So, looking in that direction, what if the weatherman on a TV station said, "we are going to start something new. At the end of the weather forecast everyday we are going to tell you what various earthquake predictions are coming across from the non-scientific community. Mind you these are not guaranteed, but we thought it would be interesting to see the results." Some years ago I saw a TV station that used to include the day's astrology report and it wasn't a problem.

Interest can also be gathered in articles written by scientists in local papers or documentaries on the topic. The primary focus is not the predictions themselves, but the message to prepare so if one pops into their neighborhood they are fully prepared. If the TV event occurred perhaps sponsors of various EQ supply businesses might wish to participate to pay for these not guaranteed predictions.

Yes indeed people do suffer from Ostrich Syndrome, but this is only because of what they've heard so far. A Scallion or two telling them a big quake is coming, yada yada yada. But if they heard there might be a possibility of a 3 or 4 first, then I think the breakthrough could occur. The way I see it, its a two step process, give them the interest and help them know they need to prepare. Not one separate from the other.

I heard a long time ago from a scientist that some psychological studies were done and they showed people weren't ready to handle earthquake prediction. At the time it was probably right, but I doubt anyone mentioned earthquake forecasting for smaller quakes in the study. Personally, I have a lot more faith in people and their ability to comprehend information and act on it accordingly. We are not talking about nuclear annilation afterall. But when that was the hot topic of its day, how many public bomb shelters were built? There didn't seem to be a problem with finding the money either. Interesting huh?

I just keep remembering how many said certain matters were impossible. A man has walked on the Moon, we've seen meteor impacts on Jupiter, cancer in many cases doesn't mean death, flouridation has saved millions and millions of teeth, computer failure resulted in a problem in a presidential compaign, the list is great. Today the interest is primarily kindled by places like this board, but one day, from here to "out there" and in time, if only one single life was saved, the cost would mean nothing. Because if you can save one, the next time you'll save more.

Strenth in adversity, all shoulders to the wheel, don't say can't, but go full steam ahead in 2001 and thereafter and never, ever, give up!

Petra