Location: Unless otherwise specified, we take it that you mean Hawaii local time, from 0001 hrs Oct. 28 to 2359 hours November 2 - of this year . . . a 6-day, 144-hour period. Ending at 0200 PDST on 3 November (for those on the U.S. West coast). Of course, by "between," you are technically specifying a considerably shorter period, comprising Oct. 29, 30, 31 and Nov. 1 . . . ending at 2359 Nov. 1 Hawaii time.

Magnitude: Gonna have to assume you mean M equal to or greater than 4.2, since I cannot imagine you not claiming a hit for a magnitude > 4.7. Why do predictors specify a range like that??

Location: Now this will never do. Unless you specify that the epicenter will be within the city limits of Honolulu, or some other clearly defined area, we have to assume you mean merely that it will be felt within the city, by at least one person. Or, god forbid, detected there instrumentally. For either of the latter two cases, many tens of thousands of square miles are within your prediction area, and the prediction thus becomes trivial.

Predictions like that give people like Roger, or anybody else who tries to determine statistical significance, severe headaches. The less technically inclined, like myself, simply consider that the predictor is a complete novice without any real understanding of the subject.

Michael Williams
Arroyo Grande, CA USA