Okay. I give up. :-) My daugter is a junior at Saugus High.

The best that I can tell, the San Gabriel fault is close to Newhall Ranch Road or maybe along the Santa Clara River. I wonder if those people purchasing those new lakeside/canal homes know that. They are pretty close to being on top of that fault. I wouldn't buy there.

Jim does post a form of a probability which is only based on historical hit rates. At least he does that much. As far as posting probabilities of getting a hit by chance, that takes a lot of work for which most people don't have the time. Alan does the best job of this that I've seen so far. But there are so many arguments around on how best to evaluate a prediction methodology. I remember one time when I reached the statistically significant category (didn't stay there) another person chimed in saying that the method Alan was using wasn't good enough. He kept insisting on double blind tests. So, as you can see, its an area that needs a lot of work in the scientific community.

Dennis