Hi All. Over the last couple of years I have made contacts with a number of scientists with various degrees of disciplines and thought I would share my thoughts with you. For the most part they all agree that earthquake prediction is still a long way off, but that progress is being made towards the day it will become reality.

The way I see it the problem doesn’t seem to be if it can be done or not, but by which method it will be done. You can find 10 different scientist and you will have 10 different ways of accomplishing it and for the most part not one will agree with the other.

There however seems to be a method that most seismologists around world are looking at and have been studying at great length.

In terms of prediction research, the most effort has been put into studying variation in seismicity rate. But, all of the studying has not produced a definite answer. Seismologists have been studying the pattern of aftershocks and foreshocks for many years now and still have not reached any firm conclusions. They know that it works sometimes, but not all the time.

In Italy, China, and California, earthquakes have been successfully predicted using a noticed increase in background seismic activity. Tiny shocks increase in number and magnitude leading up to a large shock. If these foreshocks can be recognized as such in enough time to warn people in the necessary areas, many lives can be saved.

These five predictors do not all happen at the same time or for all earthquakes but rather, may occur in stages such as: In actuality there are three predictors before the quake. Stage 5 is in fact stage 1, or it could be the other way around. At any rate this is the point at which the cycle starts all over again.

Stage 1. Elastic strain builds up along a fault due to plate movement: All parameters are at their normal state. No uplift, radon increase, etc.

Stage 2. Cracks begin to develop in crustal rocks in the pre-quake area. The buildup begins to be visible as an uplift of the area. The cracked rocks do not propogate P-waves as easily and their velocity slows in the area. Radon gas can escape through the newly formed cracks, and electrical resitivity decreases. The newly forming cracks and increasing stress may also result in a tiny increase in local seismicity.

Stage 3. Groundwater from surrounding areas can now flow into the new cracks. Because the cracks are now filled again, the P-wave velocity can increase back to normal. The ground's uplifting also ceases and radon gas emission decreases. Electrical resistivity is still decreasing.

Stage 4. THE EARTHQUAKE

Stage 5. This begins as soon as the main shock stops and consists of all the aftershocks.

This theoretical series of events could eventually lead to a somewhat reliable way to predict the occurrence of major earthquakes that could cause major death and destruction. The events are still theoretical and need much more data to make them useful enough to use. Take Care…Don in creepy town.