Re: A Coincident in Northern California
Posted by Don in Hollister on November 22, 2000 at 07:33:16:

Hi Petra. Here is a rough definition of “dilatancy-diffusion. A dilatancy-diffusion-polarization model is proposed to explain the anomalies of the electric potential, which are observed on the ground surface prior to some earthquakes. The electric polarization is believed to be the electrokinetic effect due to the invasion of fluids into new pores, which are opened inside a stressed-dilated rock body. The time and space variation of the distribution of the electric potential in a layered earth as well as in a faulted half-space is studied in detail. It results that the surface response depends on the underground conductivity distribution and on the relative disposition of the measuring dipole with respect to the buried bipole source. A field procedure based on the use of an areal layout of the recording sites is proposed, in order to obtain the most complete information on the time and space evolution of the precursory phenomena in any given seismic region.

The heyday of scientific cockiness on the predictability of earthquakes was in the '70s. Dr. Christopher Scholz, Lynn Sykes and Yash Aggarwal put forward the dilatancy-diffusion theory in an attempt to explain a great variety of phenomena that had been observed to shortly precede earthquakes. These phenomena were actually precursory, said the theory, and therefore could be used to predict the earthquake.
This development was ballyhooed, both by the global media and in the scientific literature, as signaling the advent of practical earthquake prediction. To raise the level of clamor yet higher, the Chinese government announced in 1975 that it had successfully predicted a magnitude 7.5 earthquake, and that the city of Haicheng had been evacuated in advance, saving thousands of lives.
The euphoria, however, was short-lived. In 1976, a U.S. team visited China to investigate the Haicheng prediction. They found that the prediction was apparently the result of an unusually pronounced foreshock sequence coinciding with a sort of widespread public hysteria associated with a Cultural Revolution declaration that earthquake prediction could be accomplished through the unfailing efforts of the "broad masses of the people." However one judged the merits of this prediction, it did not lead to any method that could be translated into western scientific practice. To cement this disillusionment, the famously unpredicted and disastrous Tangshan earthquake struck, killing 250,000 people in northern China in 1976.
In the meantime, back in California, several tests were made to detect one of the precursors predicted by the dilatancy-diffusion theory. These tests which were made on magnitude 5-ish earthquakes and were carried out, in my view, rather desultorily - produced negative results. Though none too conclusive, these results were accepted by consensus as deeming the failure of both the theory and of that particular form of earthquake precursor, neither of which has been seriously investigated since.

Alder Springs in located in the Mendocino National Forrest and most likely is well known by the lovers of wine. As the name suggests there are springs in the area. However this area is known as the source of a thrilling new Pinot Noir wine. The site is in Northern Mendocino County at about 2,000 feet above sea level. It lies within about 8 miles of the Pacific Ocean near the hamlet of Laytonville. The vineyard is planted to a selection of Dijon clones of Pinot Noir primarily being clone 115, a small amount of 114 and 113, and a very small amount of 667 and 777 were in production for 1998. In 1998 the grapevines produced a smaller than expected crop of very intensely concentrated grapes. The berries generally were lacking in juice (but not flavor or color) and Patz & Hall had to be very careful so as to extract full flavor without an enormous tannin load.


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: A Coincident in Northern California Say What? - Petra Challus  12:32:01 - 11/22/2000  (3979)  (1)
        ● Re: A Coincident in Northern California Say What? - Don in Hollister  15:07:01 - 11/22/2000  (3980)  (0)