Posted by Glen on July 09, 2006 at 00:19:14:
Howdy Brad, That is a very good representation of the area. I think some of those swarms around Obsidian Butte would be very intense on such an image. My original experimental prediction was on May 22, and the 4.3 mag happened about a month late, meaning it was miss. But I did get the location and mag down. The location was within 1.6023 Km, and the mag I predicted was 3.5 to 6.0. I don't think the area can go much beyond 6.0, but I try to predict "felt" quakes. There was a 5.5 at Clark Lake in 1954, also called the Arroyo Salada quake,if I remember right. I have never nailed all three requirements for a useful hit. Prediction; http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/predictions/Glen37190.html And this is the history that I found for the area, 3.5 to 6.0 within 10 Km Credit to United States Geologic Survey NEIC: Earthquake Search Results U. S. G E O L O G I C A L S U R V E Y E A R T H Q U A K E D A T A B A S E FILE CREATED: Sat Jul 8 23:57:40 2006 Circle Search Earthquakes= 19 Circle Center Point Latitude: 33.231N Longitude: 116.034W Radius: 10.000 km Catalog Used: PDE Magnitude Range: 3.5 - 6.0 Data Selection: Historical & Preliminary Data CAT YEAR MO DA ORIG TIME LAT LONG DEP MAGNITUDE IEFM DTSVNWG DIST NFPO km TFS
PDE 1975 07 04 110143.50 33.20 -116.08 26 4.20 mb GS .. . ....... 5 PDE 1980 08 23 065042.30 33.27 -116.10 5 3.60 MLPAS .. . ....... 7 PDE 1981 06 12 110246.40 33.25 -115.98 4 3.80 MLPAS .F . ....... 5 PDE 1981 10 17 194721.80 33.23 -116.07 5 3.80 MLPAS .. . ....... 3 PDE 1982 08 26 222803.10 33.27 -116.00 4 3.50 MLPAS .F . ....... 5 PDE 1990 08 31 010549 33.24 -116.05 9 3.90 MLPAS .. . ....... 1 PDE 1990 08 31 0338 33.25 -116.05 8 4.20 MLPAS 4F . ....... 2 PDE 1991 07 19 024136.80 33.21 -115.97 3 4.00 MLPAS 5F . ....... 6 PDE 1991 09 26 142930.50 33.27 -116.02 2 3.50 MLPAS .F . ....... 4 PDE 1993 07 29 160809.14 33.25 -116.14 11 3.50 MLPAS .F . ....... 9 PDE 1994 10 09 041007.45 33.23 -116.10 11 3.90 MLPAS .. . ....... 6 PDE 1997 01 13 160934.82 33.27 -116.01 3 3.70 MLGS .. . ....... 4 PDE 1998 07 10 212913.76 33.22 -116.09 12 4.10 MLPAS .F . ....... 5 PDE 1999 02 19 162751 33.20 -115.99 6 3.70 MDECX .. . ....... 5 PDE 1999 08 10 184421.52 33.27 -116.00 3 3.50 MLPAS .. . ....... 5 PDE 1999 11 01 201910.42 33.16 -116.01 3 3.50 MLPAS .. . ....... 8 PDE 2002 05 21 194308.31 33.16 -115.98 12 3.90 MLPAS .F . ....... 9 PDE 2002 09 21 212616.64 33.22 -116.11 14 4.30 MLPAS 4F . ....... 7 PDE-W 2005 09 11 060727.56 33.17 -116.04 0 3.70 MLPAS .F . ....... 6
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