Re: Let's Talk New Zealand
Posted by Roger Musson on November 02, 2000 at 08:13:19:

The problem is that at present it is hard to distinguish between fact and fancy when it comes to earthquake prediction. For the record, the VAN prediction of a major earthquake striking Athens last year (not the earthquake that did happen; this prediction was made after that one and referred to another event) did cause a panic and many people tried to flee the city, causing a lot of disruption.

The comparison is sometimes made between earthquake prediction and hurricane prediction (and subsequent orderly evacuations). The fact is, that you can see a hurricane coming at a great distance, and the only dispute is whether it will change course or not. If some expert, self-appointed or otherwise, chooses to predict a major earthquake affecting some city, the inhabitants have little way of assessing whether the prediction is reliable or not. The resulting uncertainty is no doubt unsettling.


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Let's Talk New Zealand - Cathryn  15:06:31 - 11/3/2000  (3902)  (0)