Cathryn, My paper talks about long term slip, over the last 4 million years. So, from other people's work....the onshore Malibu Coast fault is not very active...some say it has had a large earthquake or 2 in the last 10,000 years, some say it has not (but quake is certainly more recent than 1 million years). Work mainly by Dolan shows the larger system...the Santa Monica fault, has had large earthquakes in the last 10,000 years, but they only occur about every few thousand years. However, there was a smaller quake...M6 or 5.5 depending on how you measure, in 1973...Pt. Mugu.
No one knows when the next Major (M7+) quake would be. There is some question whether it fails in M7+ quakes or smaller ones...it used to be rated as capable of about a 6 1/2 because they only considered the 16 km onshore...when the onshore offshore is more like 80 km...and the interconnected faults are 200+ km-long. I'm rather confident the fault system is capable of >M7 quakes.

Oh, yeah, GPS data suggest that our long term slip rates and type is still valid for today.

wife in suburbia just got home and her cruise is in today's New York Times...she just went out to buy it (the paper, not the cruise). I'm cooking for her tonight...popcorn and beer. The flowers she bought to help sell house before she left are still alive so I don't have to buy flowers, and have more $ for more beer.
Chris