Hey, Cathryn! Yours and my posts (mine below: "Despite R/W Claims . . .") were posted almost simultaneously. Thanks for your responsiveness. First, I want to clear up any confusion regarding my bona fides. I am not a scientist. I'm a retired wildland firefighter (California Department of Forestry). I try to periodically include a disclaimer in my posts where it might matter to a new reader. I've been less than diligent in that lately.

I appreciate your sincerity, yet I believe your response is a bit of a non-sequitur. I deliberately disregarded the contributions of amateurs and fringe scientists in my earlier post since I believe that the likelihood of their contributing to any eventual prediction breakthrough is near zero. For one thing, they are greatly outnumbered, and, for the next, they are horribly ill-equipped. Though there is always the possibility of an amateur, or non-mainstream scientist succeeding where others have failed, this has become increasingly unlikely. Modern science is very, very sophisticated. To outdo the professionals, one has to be both extraordinarily lucky and brilliant. I'm not seeing that in the current crop of amateurs in seismology. Myself included.

Yes - the few scientists on this forum have been very diplomatic. Partly because they need to be.

Mike Williams in Arroyo Grande, CA