Hi Glen. By using the radius of 10km you are penalizing yourself. It would be absolutely outstanding if you could predict a quake using that radius, but that is near impossible with the data we have available to us.

The last quake with a magnitude above M=5.0 was in 1987. There were two M=6.0+ quakes on the same day just to the south of your predicted area. Both of them appear to have been strike-slip. The quakes appear to have been associated with Elmore Ranch Area fault, but they could have also been associated with the Superstition Hills fault.

The last quake of M=5.0 and larger in area of Baja quake was in 2002. It is also an area that frequently has moderate to large quakes.

I would suggest that you use a radius of 60km, as this would give you a better chance of getting a hit. That is the goal of the USGS. However I suspect that you are a little like myself. Your not that much interested in getting hits for the sake of getting hits, but more interested in the accuracy of the hits.

The quake occurred about 120km south of your predicted area. This is considered a miss, but for what its worth it is a darn good miss. It was in the magnitude range and the time frame. I don’t know of anyone else making a prediction for that area and getting that close. However your window is still open. Who knows maybe one will sneak in through the back door. Good Show. Take Care…Don in creepy town