some leads
Posted by John Vidale on May 04, 2006 at 23:16:27:

Maybe there's something to the butterfly patterns, b-values have some robust features, aftershocks are certainly real, deformation at times is not steady.

There are some leads, nothing is very helpful yet.

You make it sound like it is just a matter of will, but will alone does not overcome our ignorance about the basic facts. That's why SAFOD is being drilled, to get basic facts about what is inside fault zones not obtainable any other way. If you already know the magnitude and orientation of the stresses at depth, the degree of fluid saturation and the fluid pressure in the fault, and the energy balance during earthquakes, maybe you should tell us so we don't have to drill such an expensive hole to find out.

When people want to go to the moon, or combat cancer, or get energy from fusion, one has to do the groundwork.

I suspect we are back to the situation in which you are sure your predictions work from your experience with ear tones and Mogi donuts, and I don't think you've done the statistical tests to tell real predictions from chance.


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: some leads - Petra  04:07:30 - 5/7/2006  (36831)  (4)
        ● Re: some leads - Canie  12:48:33 - 5/7/2006  (36843)  (1)
           ● It's The Driver - Don in Hollister  14:33:44 - 5/7/2006  (36845)  (1)
              ● Re: It's The Driver - Cathryn  15:21:30 - 5/12/2006  (36903)  (0)
        ● Re: some leads - Mike Williams in Arroyo Grande  07:53:01 - 5/7/2006  (36837)  (0)
        ● once again - John Vidale  07:32:15 - 5/7/2006  (36835)  (1)
           ● Re: once again WITH FLAVOR - Petra  12:12:48 - 5/7/2006  (36839)  (2)
              ● I'm not the unhappy one here - John Vidale  15:15:12 - 5/7/2006  (36846)  (0)
              ● She's right you know.... - Russell  12:32:25 - 5/7/2006  (36841)  (1)
                 ● Re: She's right you know.... - Petra  21:51:26 - 5/7/2006  (36850)  (1)
                    ● Re: She's right you know.... - Russell  06:13:23 - 5/8/2006  (36855)  (0)
        ● Re: some leads - Mike Williams in Arroyo Grande  07:00:54 - 5/7/2006  (36833)  (0)