Russell,

I drank 32 ounces of salt water earlier this day and I don't feel like a mermaid yet. I'm disappointed.

We have to be honest, anyone who does not believe in God cannot be convinced of his existence. And you know what, it's perfectly ok. God loves them anyway and as for saving anything, don't worry about it. He loves me too and he knows better than all that I am very, very far from perfect. Real love doesn't come with conditions, including believing in the BIG GUY.

Anyway, mid-early morning here, I thought I might go ahead and give you some answers to your questions. You might not like them, but I'm going to graciously give this a shot.

So, with that in mind, I would once again like to ask some questions:

What precisely is happening that would cause the ear tone in the first place?
1. You should listen to the Radio Nexus show as Larry Park gives his opinion on this aspect. He's technically more into the explanation than I am. The Link is below.

What exactly lead to the conclusion that the ear tone was eq related?
2. I found people reaching that conclusion in 1998 and there were many onto that well before I arrived. My conclusion came from being able to confirm it by distance mapping.

Why do only certain people hear the tones?
3. Everyone has ear tones, they just haven't made the connection that they are sounds from earthquake faults. Ask anyone you know if they've ever had the experience of feeling like their ears are ringing to a point where it's annoying and they want to put their finger to their ear to make it stop. That's the more pronounced version.

Are there statistical studies of reported “hits” that lead to a “better-than-chance” conclusion?
4. That's the process I'm about to begin. I'll be taking my ear tone research data and compiling it for evaluation X 3 or maybe 4 ways so I can use it for a demonstration on my web page.

The demonstration is to show how various evaluation programs can work better for certain kinds of predictors. It is possible to get a better ratio if you use a different method. Most people aren't aware of predictions being evaluated, let alone that there is more than one way. I thought it would be good and also no one has ever seen an actual demonstration of Roger Musson's evaluation program. When I have all of the data assembled I'm going to ask Alan Jones which method he uses and if it's different than the other three, if he's willing, then he can give his program a crack at it too.

Given the sheer number of eqs each day/week – why aren’t there more ear tones reported within this group alone?
5. We can't hear all of the earthquakes that occur, especially the small one's as we don't have people everywhere and not all people can hear small end earthquakes. I do, but most don't. Much depends of what you do for work too. And we also sleep at some time. It's a human condition. I think the smallest earthquake I've heard so far is a 1.3, but I can't say that positively as I've got hundreds of reports I would have to check to confirm.

A few months ago I decided that as most people are not that interested in small earthquakes being included in predictions so I switched to only looking for 3.0 or greater quakes and we missed usually one a month. But for the fun of it, this month 4/10 to 5/10 I threw in a little of everything to make it interesting. I hope you enjoyed the sports and geology terms to spice it up a bit. And for those geology buff's I threw in faultline photos and now The Morning Song so people can get to know me a little better. So far, so good.

And as you saw we gave Glen's ear tone a ride round and it worked for him too.

I hope all of the above will be helpful, but honestly unless a person hears a tone it's really difficult to convince anyone that doesn't think they are for earthquakes to go there. I guess one would have to say, "it's not for everyone." But Mogi Donuts are good for scientists as are predictions using Geysers. And once in a while I do use both for one single earthquake as I did in 1999 when I predicted the Bennett Valley earthquake using the Calistoga Geyser, no ear tone, but head pressure instead.

The answer to earthquake prediction is to have all of the best people together who really do have an open mind and are willing to "trust" that everyone who is there is there to find a workable solution. It hasn't happened yet and I don't believe it ever will. But I do believe there are good scientists and good lay people.

This year 2006 being the 100th anniversary of the 1906 earthquake it is now "Fashionable" to tout earthquake safety as an important issue. While I've been steady at the wheel for many years, no one wanted to hear about it until this year. In 2007 it will be back to the status quo unless we have several moderate earthquakes. Only then do people think it's time to get ready.

I've already put in my legislative wish list, but if the Seismic Safety Commission goes under, my favorites won't even see the dim light of the halls at the legislature in Sacramento. Winning ideas can't find form if the body that makes them possible doesn't exist. These are very difficult times.

You may never believe in ear tone theory; but out there in the public no one disbelives as they think everything in nature is connected, including human beings and earthquake faults. The feedback from Nexus in several parts of the world has been positive.

Petra

• Radio Nexus Australia