What is interesting is that the prediction was originally issued on 6/18/00, then renewed on 6/26/00, and then renewed again on 7/14/00. All 3 predictions had the same end date of 8/7/00 with the last renewal posting a reduced magnitude of magnitude >= 5 ML versus the original magnitude >= 5.5 ML. So the prediction began with a 49 day window and after 25 days had its magnitude reduced.

Personally, I'm okay with the reduction is magnitude as long as its done prior to the event happening and as long as its based on new data that has come in. The probabilities of this happening by chance should also then be recalculated.

But I do question the usefullness of a window that's 49 days long. Is this the norm?

This isn't to say that what Zhonghao is doing is wrong. Its only to point out a few things when making/posting predictions.

Dennis

• New Predictions and Situation