Don;

> What does 1997, 98, 99, 2000, have to do with any predictions I made for 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006? I wasn’t making predictions in those years so why use them.

Nothing. I used those years to get the probability of a quake of the size and location you specified, the assumption being that those years were typical.

Turns out they weren't.

> I wonder what would happen if you took one prediction and using the location, time and magnitude of that prediction and going to a catalog and putting that data in and seeing if anything matches. Time consuming yes, but could be more accurate.

I do that already to look for hits or misses. Or did you mean to search the entire catalog? That's what I do for the probability but just using a 5 year span to save time.

Roger