Chris

My impression is that Roger's check is appropriate. One set of numbers I'd like to see is what is the rate of earthquakes during Don's predictions as opposed to the rate of earthquakes expected at random. I suspect Don is tuned in to when earthquake activity is high, and basically detecting the increased probability of earthquakes during swarms.

I'm pessimistic about Roger's chances with SCEC. Roger is applying appropriate statistics to test predictions here, but the people already in SCEC are also skilled in those techniques, and the big challenge with SCEC is to provide sophisticated null hypotheses and slick software for testing on state-of-the-art catalogs in realtime.

I'm not sure of my connection with SCEC from the far north aside from continuing to do a small project or two.

John