The issue with Kerry is on what timescale did he expect an earthquake. I've talked with him about it at length, and decades is the shortest timescale he had in mind. He certainly didn't say December.

Some of us would be more supportive if his expected time of the earthquake were 0-200 years rather than 0-20 years in the future, given how rarely time-and slip-predictable recurrence models have proven accurate.

Kerry's real contribution is charting in greater detail that very large earthquakes have indeed happened in that part of the world and when, so it is painfully obvious now that tsunami warning is necessary on those coastlines.

So you do him a disservice by linking him to people claiming enough resolution to pinpoint a certain month as the dangerous time. He said nothing like that.