Hi Barbara. It could very well be many more years before we get a M=5.0 or greater quake. We could also get one by the time you finish reading this. I don’t think any of us can give you the answer you are looking for because none of us know what the answer is.

We get lots of small quakes because of creep, but in amongst all of that creep there are areas that are locked. It is those locked areas that can produce a major quake. It just depends on how long it stays locked and how much creep is involved.

As for the accuracy of the quakes during the early 20th century. You can accept it, or reject it. I don’t know of any other listing for quakes during that time period and even if there were what would make it more accurate then what can be found on the internet at present time? Take Care…Don in creepy town