Petra;

I think the article pretty well speaks for itself.

The main problem with predictions is the lack of evaluation. Too many so called predictors just cast a net ant than brag about what falls into it. Seldom if ever does anyone check to see what they SHOULD be getting purely by chance.

I do it by statistical examination of the earthquake history in one way or another. But this can be difficult to understand for many people and some of the methods lead to charges of tampering with the data.

Dr. Musson avoids all that by setting up purely random means of making predictions and comparing his results to whatever predictor he's testing. Skywise has done something similar on SGE with his dartboard method.

But unfortunately there are those who can't see the relevance of all this and still believe that predictor X is onto something.

Roger