Hi All. Most of you are aware of my statements about being accurate in earthquake predictions and using a tight radius. This has always been my goal and is the goal of nations that have serious earthquake prediction programs.

China is the only nation to have made a successful prediction but they have had many more failures then successes. Some of those failures have been tragic, but there is nothing more they can do at present time. The Rosetta Stone so to speak hasn’t been found yet and indeed it may never be found. There are those who say earthquakes are too chaotic to be predicted, but there are also those who feel that man and science can overcome any obstacle. I have talked to those who are on different sides of the fence and each side has presented good arguments for the way they feel.

I have tried to stay neutral, but will admit that it is hard to do. I don’t think I will ever see a successful earthquake prediction in my lifetime, but I also believe that man is vain enough that he will continue to try.

These are shake maps that include the Rodgers Creek fault, the Rodgers Creek/North Hayward fault fault, the North Hayward fault and the North/South Hayward fault and are for what I believe to be a M=7.3 quake. The distance between the Rodgers Creek fault and the North Hayward fault is less then 60Km (37.5 miles), but note the difference in the amount of shaking. An earthquake prediction that is off by 160Km (100 miles) can be devastating for those who have prepared, but can be even worse for those who haven’t prepared. Don in creepy town

RCF North Hayward Fault

Rodgers Creek Fault

North Hayward Fault

North South Hayward Fault