I thought that I'd throw out something else that came up, as I understand it, during the evaluation of the VAN process.

The compiled hit/miss record was/is based on all events having a magnitude that the VAN team had previously predicted. My question with this has been, and still is, as to whether or not this analysis was done for only the areas that the VAN team had calibrated their instruments for. I ask this question because the VAN team had indicated in the past that they needed to have an area calibrated before being able to issue a prediction for that area. My position is that the analysis was extremely biased if uncalibrated areas were used in that analysis. Additionally, it is my position that only the predictions should be evaluated. Not all events for which a prediction method had predicted before. -- Dennis