Posted by Dennis Gentry in Santa Clarita on June 04, 2000 at 17:29:48:
The good doctor writes: On his last post Antonio Romino posted a prediction for Greece-Turkey on June 20-30 of M=3.8 with a 50% chance ! Well my friends this type of prediction deserves a 100% chance of being true in the country with the highest seismicity in Europe (Greece) that produces a M=4 event EVERY DAY ! Well, I looked at a rough set of coordinates for Greece and find that: FILE CREATED: Sun Jun 4 18:03:11 2000 Geographic Grid Search Earthquakes= 693 Latitude: 43.000N - 36.000N Longitude: 26.000E - 21.000E Catalog Used: PDE Date Range: Year: 1989 - 1999 Month: 01/Day: 01 Month: 12/Day: 31 Magnitude Range: 4.0 - 5.0 only 693 events in the M4 range occurred during a 10 year period or 1 every 5 1/4 days or about a 19% probability of occurring by chance. The good doctor also writes: and a magnitude 5 in Greece almost every month, so statistically speaking his predictions are saying that "THE SUN WILL RISE TOMMOROW" !!!!! So looking at the data again we see: FILE CREATED: Sun Jun 4 18:04:20 2000 Geographic Grid Search Earthquakes= 40 Latitude: 43.000N - 36.000N Longitude: 26.000E - 21.000E Catalog Used: PDE Date Range: Year: 1989 - 1999 Month: 01/Day: 01 Month: 12/Day: 31 Magnitude Range: 5.0 - 8.0 only 40 M5 - M8 quakes had occurred over this same 10 year period or 1 every 91 days or roughly 3 months or about a 1% probability of occurring by chance. Dennis
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