Shan, re your discussion below with Ara:

I don't support your method because I don't fully understand it and because the part I do understand makes no sense.

But that doesn't matter. Success or failure is what counts.

What I can do is plot your predictions on a map and then plot ensuing quakes to show how they do or do not fit.

The map will keep score so at the end we will know how many hits and misses we have. That's only a rough estimate because what is needed is the probability of success and it's different for each prediction in your case.

Roger