Hello LRS,

In passing the litmus test by scientific standards I can only site a few true successes. Such as:

9/22/99 Rodgers Creek Fault, 4.5. I missed it by .3, but it was the only moderate quake its had in 14 years.

5/99-Ocotillo Wells, 4.5/I missed my window by 3 hours.

4/98 The Geysers, 3.8, I said 3.5-4.0, it arrived 13 hours after the prediction.

It has been a challenge to take what I sense or feel and place it into a scientific vacuum, but I'm learning. I try to make use of the instruments that are available on the web and elsewhere, along with other elements including peoples behavior, lost animals, geothermal activity and my current studies in fault assessment as to probabilities to determine if there are any precursory phenomena that make me feel the prediction is more certain than not. I do look at the Mogi Donut theory, seismic gap, earthquake clustering and historical events as well.

My greatest problem is in timing. When I feel the advance of an earthquake or volcanic eruption its difficult to tell if its going to arrive right now or later. With lots of failures I'm learning which area's come in sooner and which later. Most of the time, I want to jump the gun and leave myself short in the windows.

This is where Antonio I believe has done a better job. However, he has many years of experience where I have only had two. In two years, its probably not that bad when you consider I have had little education in this area and only started to study geo-sciences in a more formal way, a year ago.

My greatest thanks would be to those inside the science community who have patiently answered my questions, taken me by the hand and explained concepts in a way I could understand them. In doing more than 1000 hours of research last year, what I know today is from the contributions of those who have worked for many years in geo-sciences and have donated what they know, via the web and have made themselves mostly available to contact for further clarification. There would be few words to express my thanks for their efforts. But one day, when I finish writing the Earthquake Prediction For The Millennium, The Seismologist's Story, from inside the Halls of Science, the public will be treated to a rare look at those who stand proud and tall, have devoted their lifetimes to study and for the most part, are truly wonderful and inspiring individuals.

The road to public earthquake prediction is a poorly lit one, full of ruts and bumps, a challenge of a lifetime, but I believe it is possible. However, its most likely to come from a private sector project, rather than from a University or Geophysical institution. The stakes I think are to high for anyone who is a credentialed scientist, however, they can be employed on a private sector project maintain their anonimity if they chose to do so. Success can be enjoyed, lives saved and what once was thought to be impossible, can be an ordinary event.

Professor Romino has presented my second attempt at working with someone on a project and I'm very honored and humbled by his invitation. I have much to learn in collaborating with another, but as he and I understand each other quite well, I hope what we each can offer, will provide an education for both of us.

Life is a journey, however, its in this journey, we have this wonderful experience called Life.

Pat