I gave it my best. But it does not pass the test. The projection period was from April 20 to the end of September. There was a 6.8 Mw on June the 14th, but that is well below the projected magnitude of 7+, which would be many times stronger in energy release. The projection was a failure, but I did learn much about seismicity in the Aleautian region. I will continue to study this area.

Aleutian Prediction
Posted by glen on June 11, 2005 at 21:34:34:
Magnitude: 7++
From: 04/20/05 - To: 09/30/05
Location: Unalaska, Alaska
Lat: 52.665N - Long: 169.318W - Range: 1000km

Basis For Projection;

Fault Criticality - I am seeing what I believe to be foreshocks to a large magnitude earthquake in this region. There have been numerous 4 and 5 mag hits on both sides of the Alaska/Aleutian Thrust Fault since March. Also, there have been recent seismic events in the Explorer Area and the Queen Charlotte areas.

Historicity - After studying the 7+ mag quakes in the Alaska region listed for the last 105 years, I have deducted that the average time between declustered quake events is 15.2 months. Corrections to this data are much appreciated. The last 7+ quake occured in November of 2003, meaning there has now been roughly an
18 month period of quiescence. There have been periods of quiescence as long as
87 months, 72 months, 54 months, 48 months in this earthquake activity. So this
prediction is not just another simple mathematical probability projection.

Lunar Gravitational Forces - In my findings of past earthquakes in the Alaska region, I have found that 62.5% of the 7+ quakes happened in conjunction with one of the four lunar phases, including syzygy, but also 90 degree orbital situations of first and last quarter moons. This is the test of lunar gravitational force. The upcoming perigee/apogee - full moon/new moon nexus is as strong as any in recent years. Let's see if it happens.

Macro Activity - Since the Great Sumatra Quake, there has been a propensity for earthquakes to occur in a counter clock-wise fasion around the Pacific Ring of Fire. The pattern, at least subjectively, seems to nucleate into the Alaska region.

Probability = 62.5% I will continue to study this region.

Corrections to data always accepted, and appreciated. I will do my best to answer any questions.

glen

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Follow Ups:

More chances.. R.Shanmugasundaram 05:10:44 6/12/2005 (5)
Re: More chances.. glen 00:30:59 6/14/2005 (4)
Re: More chances.. R.Shanmugasundaram 11:22:18 6/14/2005 (3)
Re: More chances.. glen 17:59:04 6/14/2005 (2)
Further quake in CA area? R.Shanmugasundaram 10:58:51 6/15/2005 (1)
Thank You! glen 15:30:54 6/15/2005 (0)