Diane-

I have spent hours upon hours researching this issue on southern California so here is what I know:

YES, plan to expect a quake of magnitude 7 in your area in the next 5-10 years. Also plan for a sizable quake(s) in the Palm Springs Area and Inland Empire areas as well. Even though you are further away, also be assured that we are looking at a 6+ event in the future out in the Ventura area as well.

Areas that MAYBE SAFE (please read w/ caution) is San Diego, coastal Orange County, MAYBE souther Los Angeles, Long Beach areas-of course these areas will feel their own effects from any 6+ quake within 100 miles, but a quake originating out of these areas seems slim.

Socal is definetly on the upswing of seismic activity. That whole area east of you 15 years ago deemed inactive and seismically irrelavant. We have since had Joshua Tree, Landers and Hector Mine. That theary has been reevaluated and now it is felt (KB prediction confirmed this) that the area is in the midst of a rare thousand year cycle of large quakes. The Calico fault has been named a likely target.

The Southern San Andreas has been locked 300+ years. It is very ripe and such a rupture would migrate up towards your area and POSSIBLY jump to the Sierra Madre as well. The Sierra Madre system is a VERY active system and is capable of a 7+ event at anytime as well. It is safe to assume that the Landers, Hector Mine and maybe Northridge events MAY have loaded this fault as well. Its also been suggested that this fault is the one taking the brunt of the squeeze LA has been under (but not proven, or it maybe a bundle of hidden thrust faults under the SFV that are taking the brunt)

Going north of you that segment of the San Andreas ruptured last in 1857. Nobody knows for sure what kind of intervals that segment is on, but its been suggested that its at 125 to 150 years...so you can do the math at where it MAYBE in its cyle.

If you read Don's post a few days ago where he outlined the history of major quakes leading up to 1906 in San Francisco you will see the pattern leading up to 06. IMO I think Socal starting in the 1980s is heading to the same conclusion, we maybe in for another decade or 2 of damaging quakes out in the desert, LA-valley area and your area and the boom an 8+ event on San Andreas from San Bernardino down to Mexico border then 100 years of seismic quiet. But who knows.

At any rate based on what I wrote its safe to follow Petra, Don and Canie's advice about always being prepared and what to do to be prepared.

Todd