Hi Pat. I’m going to play the part of the Devils advocate here. I think the main reason they are not issuing warnings is what if they are wrong. They have caused a lot of people a hardship. One that not only cost them time, but money as well for something that didn’t take place.
The other problem is if you cry wolf to many times there will come a time when you could be correct, but no one will pay any attention.
They also remember the time USGS issued a warning for the Mammoth Lakes area. USGS took a lot of heat for that when there was no eruption. Anytime you issue a warning that could cost people a lot of money for nothing they won’t remember the times you were correct. Only the times you were incorrect. That is human nature.
People take warnings about hurricanes and tornado’s seriously because they can see them plus the fact that they have them more times then we have a catastrophic quake plus the fact that a lot of people don’t understand the mechanics of a quake, or they don’t understand the mechanics of the prediction.
If you were to give a prediction for the Bay Area how much time would it take to evacuate the area? Let say 5 days. You miss the prediction by one day (plus or minus) and the quake strikes one day early. You would catch a lot of people in the process of moving out. It strikes one day late you would catch a lot of people moving back into the area. Each 24hrs that you are off on the prediction would compound the problem. Suppose the quake didn’t center in the area you said it would, but 50 miles away and that is where most of the people took refuge. Supposes you predicted an 8.0Ml and the quake was only 6.0Ml. Was it the main event, or a foreshock?
At present there are too many variables that could go wrong. I would not want to be the one to make the call. Take Care…Don in creepy town.