Hi all!

Today I have noticed the following result in Redpuma:

22May2005 14:17:34.6 30.4N 83.8E 40 mb=4.8 M GSR XIZANG

i.e. around 165KMs away from my predicted location. It is jolted
within the time limit fixed but not with magnitude. Still I believe
it should be atleast 5M. After confirming USGS report only, the exact
magnitude of this quake comes into light. Let us wait.

Meanwhile for your interest I appended below my edited version of e-mail
conversation about the recent quake prediction over Iran in a couple of
days back for your perusal:

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----- Original Message -----
From: Shanmugham
To: AmirReza AmirEbrahimi and many....
Sent: Monday, May 09, 2005 9:42 AM
Subject: Severe quake over Iran..?

Dear All,

I suspect around 6 to 7M quake over

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IRAN (30.8N 56.9E)
may occur within next 48 to 180 hours from 04.30 UTC on 8th May 2005.

Also many of my yesterday locations in my website the magnitude is further upgraded.
Since it is time for my office, I will let you know other changes in the evening in
my web site.

Shan
Shanmugasundaram
Coimbatore

----- Original Message -----
From: Shanmugham
To: AmirReza AmirEbrahimi
Sent: Tuesday, May 10, 2005 8:24 AM
Subject: Re: Severe quake over Iran..?

Dear Amir,

Thanks for the mail. Infact I compared the Feb.05 reading which yield 6.4M quake

2005/02/22 02:25:22 30.72N 56.84E 14.0 6.4 CENTRAL IRAN

with the present one registered was more or less same type with slight difference.
So I am eager to watch how it will affect the results.

May not be right but I presume that the present quake may occur at around 02.25 UTC
on 14th May 05.

Take care and alert accordingly to local disaster departments/officials.


Shan

----- Original Message -----
From: Shanmugham
To: AmirReza AmirEbrahimi and many...
Sent: Friday, May 13, 2005 11:06 PM
Subject: Result of Iran quake

Dear All,

Today, I have noticed the following result from Redpuma & EMSC.

12May2005 22:55:09.7 30.6N 57.0E 33 mb=4.9 M*GSR NORTHERN IRAN ( Redpuma)
2005/05/12 22:55:09.7 30.6N 57.0E 33 mb4.9 M GSRC NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IRAN ( EMSC)

which coincides with my prediction in terms of time frame and location fixed but the magnitude
was lesser than expected. I am satisfied with the result compared with Feb. 22 of 6.4M quake
over the same area and it will enrich my further prediction process, in future.

Now, I am expecting around 5M quake over Gujarat / Own Fracture Zone as posted in my site,
shortly.

Comments are welcome.

Shan


----- Original Message -----
From: Shanmugham
To: AmirReza AmirEbrahimi and many...
Sent: Sunday, May 15, 2005 11:16 PM
Subject: Further result of Iran quake

In continuation of my prediction and result thereof over Iran, today, I have received the
following result for the same prediction:

2005/05/14 18:04:59 30.76N 56.91E 31.5 5.4 CENTRAL IRAN (USGS)

2005/05/14 18:05:02.4 30.75 N 56.74 E 80 mb5.5 NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IRAN(CSEM)

14May2005 18:04:55.9 30.5N 56.9E 33 MS=4.9 M*GSR NORTHERN IRAN (Redpuma)
14May2005 18:04:24.1 28.3N 60.2E 10 mb=5.7 M*SED SOUTHERN IRAN (Redpuma)
14May2005 18:05:02.4 30.8N 56.7E 80 mb=5.5 M*EMS NORTHERN IRAN (Redpuma)
14May2005 18:04:59.1 30.8N 56.9E 31 M =5.4 M*NEI NORTHERN IRAN (Redpuma)


I felt this quake is perfect match with my prediction which is also expected by me as informed
earlier to Amir.

I suspect the result one earlier informed may be due to another precursor since the fault is
very active nowadays but not registered in this observatory due to lack of sun shine.
Else, may be double quake over the same fault for the same precursor, hence the reason for
reduction in magnitude.

R.Shanmugasundaram

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Shan

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