Michael,

I received three e-mails today from people knowing that I would be very interested in this new project. I am interested and curious too. I found this narrative on one of the pages and I think it speaks volumes in making it clear this is not a prediction map, but a probability map.

"The only time that the probabilities become large enough to affect you is after a significant earthquake that may have already caused damage. You already knew that aftershocks are likely in this situation. The map is showing you where those aftershocks are most likely to be felt and how the risk changes with time. Remember that this probability is for shaking large enough to knock objects off shelves. The probability of damaging shaking is significantly less."

Did we all notice that if you live on the western side of the map you are more likely to feel a future earthquake than if you were on the eastern side? Does that mean they are acknowledging the Coastal Shift? Gosh, I wonder. I thought it was interesting that they included the Burney area which has few earthquakes and there's nothing for Mammoth Lakes. Of course Mammoth has far more instrumentation and a much bigger budget than does Burney and a much greater liklihood of small to moderate quakes, so what gives with that? The last time I checked it hadn't moved eastward enough to be out of California yet. Umm. And I do think they should have included the coastal waters off of the LA/Long Beach/Santa Barbara area and the MTJ as well. Despite what some may think its gonna heat up down there and up there too. Oh...that's insider info, don't tell anyone.

I think I hit my "Let's Have a Challenge Button" today when I read this. And another thought came to me. Why isn't my RCF in red? It has the highest probability in the Bay Area to have a 7.0 at any time. I guess we have to give them some time to get used to this new development and let them take it for a test drive and see how it goes. For all we know, this may be the beginning of prediction of the future and it may come across a lot less threatening than the real thing to start.

I think a hale and hearty Woohoo is in order!

Petra