The previous Great earthquake prediction from Shan was a miss because it has not happened yet and I'm pretty sure we are now well outside the prediction window. The one before that was correct on time and magnitude. It was a miss on location by Shan's criteria here, but it was close enough on location for me, give the large magnitude (as off by about 2 rupture lengths, which for a M5 would only be a km or so. Earlier predictions of quakes by Shan were too numerous for location for me to form an impression....but nothing besides the March prediction reached out and grabbed me as impressive.
Chris