Hi John. Thought you might like to read this article where the “rate and state” theory has been put to use. This one covers the Hayward Fault. I remember reading something about it being used in the Parkfield area, but can’t find it now. Take Care…Don in creepy town

This analysis requires advance knowledge of various fault parameters used to specify the rate-and-state formulation (Linker et al., 1992). We invert for the A and B parameters which define the weighting of velocity and state dependence, respectively, using the creep response observed along the Hayward fault following Loma Prieta. In addition, a temporal loading curve is calculated using a finite element code to model the coseismic stress change and the postseismic relaxation (Kenner et al., 1998). Various models representing different structural geometries of the Bay Area are tested. With these inputs we then calculate the temporal creep response along the southern Hayward fault for each model. The rate-and-state formulation predicts induced left lateral creep along the Hayward fault for all structural models. No detailed observations of creep were made immediately following the 1906 rupture that can confirm nor refute our model predictions. Offset cultural features which record the net displacement are used to constrain the average slip rate observed over a range of time periods since 1906 (Lienkaemper et al., 1997). These data suggest that averaged creep rates along the Hayward fault have remained nearly constant since about 1920 until Loma Prieta in 1989. Given the available data, we find that the left-lateral creep predicted by our modeling is acceptable under the condition that right lateral creep resumes by the 1920's.

• Rate and State Theory