P.S....something Petra posted rang a little true...that for quakes that exceed the forecast range, should they be evaluated differently....not as a miss? I think she was saying that for an earthquake posted as a 3.8 to 4.8, with occurrence of a 6.0, you are doing probability based on all quakes over 3.8. Should it instead be based on all quakes over 4.3? With quakes that occur below the midpoint of the range counting for less than those that are over the midpoint of the range?
Chris