Petra;

Here's my take on your 6 predictions.

1) Only 5 such quakes in the NEIC database. Your window has only a 1% chance of success.

2) Only 5 quakes here giving your window 0.5% chance of success

3) 981 quakes in the database gives yo a 95% chance of success. Sure thing.

4) 69 quakes in 30 years gives you 6.3% chance of success

5) New Idria not in my atlas, no quake

6) Only one quake in the database. Very small chance of success!

I'd say you're doing extremely well based on this small sample.

Roger