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| Re: STATISTICAL ACCURACY / PROBABILITY ? |
Christopher...this is not what I do, but I have been casually watching occurence of quakes for 16 years so could comment....can you link to or type in the exact prediction you are talking about? There is about 1 Great quake/yr. So, there is better than 1 in 100 chance that you would catch one in a 4 day window. And, if there are 100 people making predictions like this, or 1 person making 100 predictions, there is a pretty good chance they will get it by chance. Was the prediction really very clear that it was greater than M8? Follow Ups: ● better odds wasby chance - chris in suburbia 05:00:00 - 12/31/2004 (24128) (0) ● Re: STATISTICAL ACCURACY / PROBABILITY ? - Roger Hunter 07:32:21 - 12/28/2004 (24051) (2) ● Re: STATISTICAL ACCURACY / PROBABILITY ? - christopher 08:01:59 - 12/29/2004 (24076) (2) ● Re: STATISTICAL ACCURACY / PROBABILITY ? - Don in Hollister 12:54:35 - 12/29/2004 (24082) (1) ● WHOA! WAIT A MINUTE ! - Cathryn 21:23:20 - 12/29/2004 (24089) (1) ● Re: WHOA! WAIT A MINUTE ! - Roger Hunter 06:50:05 - 12/30/2004 (24096) (1) ● Re: WHOA! WAIT A MINUTE ! - Cathryn 20:14:09 - 12/30/2004 (24118) (0) ● Re: STATISTICAL ACCURACY / PROBABILITY ? - Roger Hunter 10:14:46 - 12/29/2004 (24078) (1) ● Here's the "prediction" - Roger Hunter 11:34:57 - 12/29/2004 (24080) (2) ● ERROR - Cathryn 21:31:50 - 12/29/2004 (24090) (1) ● Re: ERROR - Roger Hunter 06:52:07 - 12/30/2004 (24097) (1) ● Re: ERROR - Cathryn 20:15:06 - 12/30/2004 (24119) (0) ● Re: Here's the "prediction" - marc / SF 13:24:56 - 12/29/2004 (24083) (1) ● Re: Here's the "prediction" - Cathryn 02:54:58 - 12/30/2004 (24094) (0) ● Re: STATISTICAL ACCURACY / PROBABILITY ? - Canie 18:02:18 - 12/28/2004 (24073) (0) |
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