Hi All. From a study recently completed it has been found that East Bay faults aren't quite where scientists thought they were.

By Andrea Widener. CONTRA COSTA TIMES

Throw out your old ideas about the Hayward Fault. That's what Bay Area earthquake scientists are doing. Research shows the fault is more complex and potentially more dangerous than scientists previously thought.

Instead of being a simple-to-understand vertical fault, scientists say, the Hayward fault may curve east near San Leandro. Deep underground, it could connect to the Calaveras fault that is located further to the east.

The thing that bothers me about this is the possibility of a quake that could involve the Rodgers Creek, Calaveras, and the Hayward Fault if a quake on one were to trigger a quake on the other two at the same time. The overall magnitude of the quake wouldn’t be that much larger, but the area involved in the quake would be. Not a pleasant thought. However the odds of this occurring are low as there isn’t any evidence that this has ever happened in the past. At least none that I can find.

However there is one person who feels the quake could be a very large quake. "If both faults ruptured, it could be a very large earthquake," said U.S. Geological Survey scientist David Ponce, who presented the findings connecting the two faults in Dec. 2003 in San Francisco at the American Geophysical Union.

In 1998 a geologist studying Strawberry Creek at the University of California at Berkeley has found that underground stress on the fault could be building even faster than previously thought.

The Strawberry Creek findings -- indicating a long-term slippage rate more than 10 percent greater than previously estimated -- lends further weight to what more and more experts have come to accept in recent years as a chilling reality: The northern segment of the Hayward Fault is overdue for a major earthquake and could represent the greatest quake-related risk of loss of life in the United States. The northern segment runs from Oakland through Berkeley and Richmond to San Pablo Bay. However a study done in 2000 shows just the opposite.

A new report released last week by a team of geophysicists from UC Berkeley and the UC-managed Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory has found the fault is not as dangerous as previously believed.

Scientists observed the fault's movement and found that plates on the surface and deep in the Earth are moving at approximately the same rate, decreasing the likelihood of a major earthquake along that section of the fault.

While there appears to be conflicting data and opinions as to where and how the next quake will occur it seems to me that were a lot closer to having it then we would like to believe. I guess only time will tell. That being the case I think I will just sit back, put my heels and wait and see what happens next and when. Take Care…Don in creepy town

http://www.sfgate.com/cgibin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/1998/04/22/MN97503.DTL

http://www.dailycal.org/article.php?id=2926

http://www.contracostatimes.com/mld/cctimes/news/7598804.htm?1c