Parkfield Information, This and That
Posted by Don in Hollister on September 28, 2004 at 16:41:28:

Hi All. Just talked to the Parkfield Inn and everything there is okay. They are in the process of cleaning up. The wine glass caught hell along with other glass items. The branding irons all stayed in place. They were kind of noisy though.

Some chimneys came down and some minor damage done to three homes in the area. The bridge leading into Parkfield is open to traffic. The person I talked to hasn’t heard about any damage to the bridge. Willa Sell, 77, who lives on a ranch outside Parkfield, said she had lamps, pictures and stuff all over the floor. "I was happy when it was over. It was a real shaker." I imagine that it was. I know I felt it here in Hollister. I knew it was a large quake from the very moment in started. No sound. It started as a gentle roll and kept getting stronger and stronger. Then the second jolt struck and things really started shaking. I felt the shaking for 8 seconds, but my desk lamp shook for 31 seconds plus or minus 2 seconds.

Donnalee is okay. They have seen her walking around the area taking notes. Looks like another segment for her book is in the making.

The mission in San Miguel came through with flying colors. No more damage was done. At least none that is apparent at this time.

No reports about the condition of the Chalome Road, which is very close to the epicenter of the quake.

All in all the residents are taking the quake in good stride. They view it as a part of living in Parkfield. They know they will have these quakes from time to time, but that can’t think of living anywhere else. It is home and the quakes are a part of it. There are now 37 people living in Parkfield. It’s rather doubtful that any will move. The Parkfield Hotel is booked. No room at the Inn. I have a six-man tent that Petra could stay in. That is if she doesn’t mind sleeping on the ground with pigs, coyotes and rattlesnakes.

The news is saying that it was a 6.0 on the Richter scale. Wrong. It was a 6.0Mw. Both the “first motion mechanism” and the “moment tensor solution” show the quake as being a strike-slip quake. This is the kind of quake expected to be seen in this area. There doesn’t appear to have been any foreshocks to this quake. Most of the aftershocks appear to be occurring in a northwest direction.

From CISN

“Preliminary analysis of the 2004 Parkfield shows that it is dissimilar in some respects to the earlier quakes. The 2004 quake nucleated in the south and ruptured to the north. Unlike the 1934 and 1966 quakes, the 2004 quake was not immediately preceded (by 17 minutes, respectively) by a M4.5 foreshocks. Finally, the 38-year interval between the 1966 and 2004 earthquakes was the longest observed interval in the entire 147 year interval. However, the forecast of the place, magnitude, sense of slip, and rupture endpoints and likelihood of rupture was correct. This bolsters confidence in similar hazard forecasts for the Los Angeles and San Francisco Bay regions. Moreover, the 2001 forecast was based on analysis of geophysical data, published research, and fundamental physical principles. The 2004 quake demonstrates the validity to this approach and the value of collecting data that bears on the earthquake problem. However, accurately forecasting the time of damaging earthquakes remains as a significant challenge.”

I still feel that the 1983 Coalinga quake was the Parkfield quake that missed by about 20 miles to the east. Today’s quake occurred 21 years after the Coalinga quake. Today’s quake fits the average of every 22 years plus or minus 5 years.

There is a significant change in the rate of slip, dilational strain and tensor strain in the Parkfield area. All slip data is showing movement. The one that is kind of curious is X461. It appears to have moved in the opposite direction. This is in the area of Chalome. This is also the area of the 1857 quake. There were a couple of strong foreshocks to the 1857 quake. The exact location of those foreshocks isn’t known, but they were thought to be in the area of the quake. In 1993 there was a drop in magnetic on the southwestern side of the fault while at the same time there was an increase in the magnetic on the northeast side of the fault. I leaned about this when I talked to a seismologist at the AGU a couple of years ago.

I would have to say this has been an interesting day. One that I wouldn’t have missed for the world, but then neither would I seek out the next one. I’ll let Petra do that. Of course I will have to drive her there. She’s weird. No doubt about it. She’s weird. Take Care…Don in creepy town


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Parkfield Information, This and That - chris in suburbia  17:19:01 - 9/28/2004  (23099)  (0)