Thanks Steve Canie Petra...it's Sunday and I don't have time to read those links today....but sounds like when I wasw criticizing the probabilities it was remembering the couple percent chance of a big 1906-style quake. I could be mis-representing, but the way I read Weldon's work is that there could well be a big 1906-style quake...the probability of that should be higher than a few percent in 30 years....Chris