Posted by R.Shanmugasundaram on September 07, 2004 at 11:00:46:
Actually I dont want to post my previous message but I want to post it because expecting such comments to give a chance to explain my mistakes in sun shadow method. But remember so far I have been successful in number of times as you knew and waiting to improve the tolerence level of +/- 3 degrees in finding the location. As I have stated many times in the board, without similar observatories I am unable to pin point the location very accurately. In the said instance I have given the location in a diffused sunlight day and that too after such consequtive days means that unable to follow the earthmovement continuously with loss of supporting precursors registered at various timings. Without 3 good consequtive days sun shadow readings, fixing the magnitude, location and time frame is not possible. In this particular case, shift factor i.e. the distance between the normal path and the deviated path is so high and also sun shines a couple of seconds together is a rare event which indicates for a incoming very strong quake. So I am curious to post the same in my websites this event with the expectation of CA quake on the other side of the earth. Though I have noticed some moderate quake activities over EAST COAST OF HONSHU on 2nd Sept. and posted in my websites the day itself, subsequently it was not followed due to lack of sunshine. Please note that my predicted time frame and 6+M magnitude and the direction I expected from my observatory were correct and I agreed I missed the location since its need basic data to be derived from good sunshine days. But I don't know the reason for the expected long term prediction of CA quake by experts based on PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS which does not fullfil even one among the three basic parameters. I have more idea but no time to feed my older data into my computer and analysing the same in different angle. Perhaps my retirement age may fulfill my ambition to pinpoint the location. As Don repeatedly highlighting that "we learn more from our mistakes than from our successes", I am quite happy with this mistake. But the group which does not believe this method has to pay highly for that in the near future. Shan
Follow Ups:
● Re: Silly.. but not fully... - Cathryn 13:32:46 - 9/8/2004 (22798) (1)
● Re: Silly.. but not fully... - R.Shanmugasundaram 07:52:34 - 9/9/2004 (22806) (1)
● Re: Silly.. but not fully... - Cathryn 14:45:20 - 9/11/2004 (22832) (1)
● Re: Silly.. but not fully... - R.Shanmugasundaram 21:26:13 - 9/11/2004 (22842) (0)
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