Hi All,

On the eve of the failure of Dr. Keilis-Borok's, Southern, California prediction to me it is a victory of immense proportions. At no time until now has public earthquake prediction been put to the test and found the response so positive. For this I am indeed very grateful.

From four years ago when I was told repeatedly it could not be done because we would all panic and chaos would ensue, from the naysayer's that said prediction itself was impossible, for all of the negativity, I am so glad Dr. Keilis-Borok has proved them all wrong. I am thrilled beyond mere words.

Despite his intention of keeping his work behind the scenes, this event proved a lesson well learned. To me, it never mattered whether he had a successful prediction or not, because in time I saw the positive side of what was happening. Citizens while concerned, treated it as I expected educated people would. Those who were of a mind to took earthquake preparedness measures, some only became more aware they lived in earthquake country and the rest did exactly what a certain segment of society always does; they, ignored it.

The door to earthquake prediction from inside the halls of science is now open. GeoForecasters opened it and Keilis-Borok held it open. I suspect in time others who have been fence sitters will come forward and make attempts as well. Though some will have successful predictions, others will not, but we should look at the big picture and see this as a very positive turn.

In August 1999 I sat down with Dr. Tom McEvilly and we discussed earthquake prediction when I brought him a plan drawn up by a scientist who had a definite interest in prediction. McEvilly took at look at it, gave me his opinion which wasn't all that good, but he was interested. He proved to be quite a guiding light for me. At that point in time, money seemed to be the largest issue and others gave me advice about where to find it. Today I know as I did then, money is not the issue. Willingness to go the distance, believing and testing a prediction method, is what separates the weak from the strong.

The future of earthquake prediction is taking a turn for the better. I pray Bob Geller lives to enjoy the day when he is proven wrong ten times over as there is no stronger and more vocal naysayer than he.

Let us have faith, live the dream and enjoy many more successful attempts along the way, despite a few false alarms. We should drink champagne today because what was said could never happen has and what will be, is so amazing I doubt we can envision it yet.

Petra