The BIG ONE – Will there be any warning signs?
Posted by EQF on August 27, 2004 at 14:59:34:

The “Big One” is some hypothetical earthquake which is supposed to lay waste to part of the U.S. West Coast. I believe that to a certain extent earthquake researchers can now tell how much strain has accumulated in fault zones in a given area. So they probably have some idea if there is enough strain stored anywhere along the coast to be able to cause an earthquake like that. I myself do not have that information. Perhaps some other board poster can offer an opinion regarding that possibility.

In any case, the question is,

QUESTION: “If such a truly catastrophic earthquake is in fact headed for the coast, will there be any warning signs before it occurs?”

I believe that some of the data which were just generated by my new earthquake forecasting research computer program can shed some light on that question.

These are data which the program generated when I ran EM signal data detected between August, 2003 and the end of December, 2003 through it. These are for earthquakes from around the longitude of the devastating December 26, 2003 earthquake in Bam, Iran which reportedly claimed more than 25,000 lives.

 LON LAT  xPar  o   n  yPar  o   n  zPar  o   n    xPdr  o   n  yPdr  o   n  zPdr  o   n   angle  date    mag D  eql  gl  ml  ci  la  sa  Earthquake Data
  60  29   95: 95: 95:  82: 89: 98:  51: 61: 91:      :   :   :    :   :   :    :   :   :   -78 03/08/21  5.7     30  30  51  46  82  43  2003/08/21  04:02:09 29.07N 59.82E 20.5 5.7 SOUTHEASTERN IRAN
  60  32   85: 85: 85:  74: 80: 88:  61: 72:107:    88: 88: 88:  77: 83: 91:  63: 76:111:   166 98/04/10  5.8 2   30  65  57  21   7  53  1998/04/10  15:00:53 32.46N 59.90E 33.0 5.8
  60  33   85: 85: 85:  56: 61: 67:  28: 34: 50:    88: 88: 88:  58: 63: 69:  29: 36: 52:    79 97/05/13  4.5 1   30  23   3  86  47  10  1997/05/13  11:42:21 33.46N 59.89E 10.0 4.5 NORTHERN IRAN
  60  34   65: 65: 65:  56: 61: 67:  38: 45: 68:    67: 67: 67:  58: 63: 69:  40: 48: 70:    44 97/05/10  7.7 4   30  87  74  59  38  88  1997/05/10  07:57:29 33.83N 59.80E 10.0 7.7
  59  28  100:100:100:  88: 95:104:  33: 40: 59:      :   :   :    :   :   :    :   :   :  -175 98/06/10  5.4     32  33  35   8  81  37  1998/06/10  08:30:13 28.27N 58.50E 88.0 5.4
  58  29   67: 67: 67:  56: 61: 67:  39: 46: 69:    69: 69: 69:  58: 63: 69:  41: 49: 72:    37 03/12/26  6.6 5   32   0  79  65  44  91  2003/12/26  01:56:52 29.00N 58.33E 10.0 6.6 SOUTHEASTERN IRAN 
  58  35   75: 75: 75:  59: 64: 71:  31: 37: 55:    78: 78: 78:  61: 67: 73:  32: 39: 57:   -29 00/02/02  5.4 1   32   2  11  64  45   1  2000/02/02  22:58:01 35.29N 58.20E 33.0 5.4
  58  30   99: 99: 99:  87: 94:103:  33: 39: 58:      :   :   :    :   :   :    :   :   :   -11 98/11/18  5.4     33  34  37   3  79  34  1998/11/18  07:39:23 30.30N 57.50E 33.0 5.4
  58  30   70: 70: 70:  54: 59: 65:  34: 41: 61:    73: 73: 73:  56: 61: 67:  36: 43: 63:  -161 98/03/14  6.9 1   32  84   5  68  57  13  1998/03/14  19:40:27 30.15N 57.60E 9.0 6.9
The A11, A12, A13, D11, D12, and D13 columns are for the October to December time window and are the reference data. With the A… column data the EM signals were compared with all of the 20,000 or so 5.0 and greater magnitude earthquakes in my database file going from the beginning of 1990 up till the end of 2003. With the D… column data the EM signals were compared with only earthquakes occurring during that time period which produced 1 or more fatalities. The significant comparisons are between A11, A21, and A31, between B11, B21, and B31, and between D11, D21, and D31 column data etc.

Going from right to left within the A… columns and within the D… columns it can be seen that the values increased for quite a few of those earthquakes. And perhaps the most significant pieces of data are the 100 values in the A11, A12, and A13 columns for the fifth earthquake from the top. That means that my program gave that earthquake its highest possible rating, 100, for the October through December time period. The rating range is 0 to 100.

There were two other earthquakes at 147E which also had 100 ratings. I believe that some Taiwan area seismic activity might have been responsible for them. That 100 rating was assigned to the Iran earthquake after my program compared it with all of the other 20,000 earthquakes in its database file.

So, the program appears to me to be showing that it could have easily detected the approach of that December 26, 2003 Iran earthquake had it existed back then. And what that and numerous other data indicate to me is that when the time arrives for an extremely powerful and destructive earthquake to hit the U.S. West Coast, there should be plenty of warning signs weeks, months, and perhaps even years before it occurs.

ANSWER: “Yes. Those data suggest to me that there will probably be numerous, strong warning signs before the ‘Big One’ hits.”

NEXT QUESTIONS:

“Are any of our scientists and government officials going to be watching for those warning signs?”

“Will they have the ability to detect the warning signs?”

“Will they even make an effort to learn how to detect them?”

ANSWERS: “The jury is still out on those questions.”

Follow Ups:
     ● Corrected data table - EQF  15:29:30 - 8/27/2004  (22605)  (1)
        ● Re: Corrected data table - Roger Hunter  16:18:07 - 8/27/2004  (22607)  (1)
           ● Re: Corrected data table - EQF  06:18:45 - 8/28/2004  (22620)  (1)
              ● Re: Corrected data table - Roger Hunter  08:46:46 - 8/28/2004  (22628)  (1)
                 ● Re: Corrected data table - EQF  10:02:01 - 8/28/2004  (22629)  (0)