Willing to play devil's advocate
Posted by Cathryn on August 09, 2004 at 17:59:43:

Okay, let's be fair. If anyone else on this board made this prediction, here, for a 4-day window, and the expected magnitude was a tenth of a point higher, we'd all be falling all over ourselves congratulating the predictor. Yes, there is some wiggle room if you want to nit pick, but overall, this is the most impressive prediction you've ever shared with this board to my knowledge.

But... one successful prediction does not a career make, and EQF did have to dig back six years for an example. So I have to ask, if you "knew" the exact whereabouts of this quake that killed this many thousands of people, why you didn't make that known? For someone constantly touting "saving lives" as your raison d'etre, you didn't save any in 1998.

EQF, can you point us to other examples similar to this and more recent?

Below, in this forum, you stated:

"I understand that you and your colleagues are expecting an earthquake in the California area at some point in time. I probably have the only data which can tell you when it is likely to occur."

These are two clear declarative statements made by you.

You now have a chance to bolster your reputation here by making a clear prediction. I don't care if it's based on barking chickens, if you can tell us where, when, and how big, and have it come to pass, you will find this lady receptive to your ideas.

When will this earthquake (presumably the K-B prediction) take place? Where, specifically, is it "likely to occur?"
You bandied about a magnitude 8 (unless I'm confusing that with some other post of yours). Is that your expected magnitude?

This is your chance to dazzle this board and put your naysayers to shame. You claim you can do that. Let's see if you can.

Respectfully,

Cathryn

P.S. Please don't refer me to your website. I'm not a scientist, and as such, cannot make much sense of it.