John, you were doing fine until that last sentence in your note. Then you ruined the note in my opinion. So, let me address that issue first.

As far as guilt is concerned, people do not usually cause earthquakes to occur. But, life constantly provides us with opportunities. They are open doors which we can choose or decline to walk through. What I said was that the work that I am doing represents one of those open doors. And if you choose not to take advantage of the situation then you are in my opinion turning down an opportunity which might save some lives including perhaps your own. If a person chooses not to undergo chemical therapy for cancer for one reason or another and dies as a result I am not sure if you could say that he is guilty of anything. But he made a choice which might have cost him his life.

Because of the position you are in within the geology community you have more opportunities than most people to be helpful. And I personally feel that this places a certain amount of obligation on you. However when all is said and done you have to consider how you yourself will be personally affected should an earthquake claim the life of someone who is important to you. How will you feel if you eventually discover that something that you could have done might have saved that person? I don’t have to worry about that myself. I am moving these efforts forward as fast as I can.

On the other hand, there is something which would actually be a major mistake. And that is to interfere in the efforts that other people are making to develop lifesaving earthquake forecasting technology. And I would have to say that some of your notes posted to this bulletin board in the past regarding the work that I am doing have not been especially helpful.

TECHNOLOGY

I believe that you keep assuming that I am either bragging or criticizing you when I say this when in fact I am simply trying to provide people a perspective on the subject matter. It is my assessment of the situation as a scientists when I say that much of the work that I am doing is a quarter of a century ahead of everyone else. So, what I am saying is that with virtually all of what you are mentioning regarding this technology I have already considered the material and am now look at things which are decades beyond that.

For example, there are a number of major or potentially major cyclic forces which can affect earthquake triggering.

*** The sun – Earth moon angle
*** How close the Earth, sun, and moon are to one another
*** How fast the moon is moving relative to the Earth
*** Where both the sun and moon are in their north – south transits relative to the equator
*** The location of the Earth in the sun’s 4 magnetic field regions

Each of those factors has a full cycle of about 4 weeks except for the sun’s north – south transit. And if you want to look at triggering factors you need to take all of them into account and see which ones might be important. My Wave Charts let people see how most of those factors look at a given time. I have not been able to find any good data on the sun’s magnetic field change times and do not have them on my plots. They are available. I just don’t know where to find them. Polar motion should also be included. But I also do not know where to find those data.

Those 4 week cycle periods are not exactly the same time length. And so you have different forces adding their triggering effects to one another at certain times and interfering with one another at other times. The overall picture is highly complex. But it does appear that the most powerful earthquakes tend to occur when the sun and moon are near one another in the sky.

RELEVANCE

With my formal earthquake forecasting program I use 3 separate, complex computer programs to generate data which I then manually evaluate. The only program available through my Web site is the ETDPROG.pl program which would be the most useful and easily used by other people. The other programs can eventually be merged into that one.

The ETDPROG.pl program contains enough important data comparison routines that it can produce forecasting data which can be extremely good. And there are two reasons that I am strongly recommending that it be used and improved. First, it works. Second, in order to improve its performance you only need to add additional data processing subroutines. So there is nothing which needs to be purchased. And computer programmers around the world could do the work quite easily. But ultimately they would need some guidance and organization from the geophysics community. And if the geophysicists are not interested then progress is slow.

As I said, these are opportunities, open doors. People can take advantage of the opportunities or they can ignore them. And if they do in fact have some potential, then when you are dealing with something like earthquakes if people choose to ignore them then the consequences can be catastrophic.

These are personal opinions.