Hi All. Looking at the small M>4.0 quake in the area of Coachella made me think of the prediction that Kellis Borok made recently for the Southern California area.

The California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council analyzed the team's work in February and ``while they concluded it was worthwhile research, they could neither validate or invalidate the prediction,'' Reichle said.

The prediction is that there is a 50 percent chance of a magnitude 6.4 or greater earthquake on or before Sept. 5 within a 12,440-square-mile area of Southern California that includes portions of the eastern Mojave Desert, Coachella Valley, Imperial Valley and eastern San Diego County. Much of the area is unpopulated, and a major quake hits the area about every 10 years.

According to a report prepared by the earthquake prediction council, the area in question includes a number of very active faults: the Coachella segment of the San Andreas fault, the southern portion of the San Jacinto fault, the Imperial fault and a portion of the Elsinore fault.

Keilis-Borok, 82, has been working on earthquake prediction for more than 20 years. A mathematical geophysicist, he was the leading seismologist in Russia for decades, said his UCLA colleague John Vidale, who calls Keilis-Borok the world�s leading scientist in the art of earthquake prediction. Keilis-Borok is a member of the National Academy of Sciences, and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, as well as the Russian Academy of Sciences, and the European, Austrian and Pontifical academies of science. He founded Moscow�s International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, and joined UCLA�s faculty in 1999. His research team has started experiments in advance prediction of destructive earthquakes in Southern California, Central California, Japan, Israel and neighboring countries, and plans to expand prediction to other regions.

John Vidale, interim director of the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, said, �Most seismologists agree that the ingredients of the �tail wags the dog� method are sensible, but argue about the performance. However, the proof is in the pudding, and Professor Keilis-Borok�s methods have now delivered several correct and impressive forecasts.�

�Similarly, we look backwards to make our earthquake predictions. First, we search for quickly formed long chains of small earthquakes. Each chain is our candidate to a newly discovered short-term precursor. In the vicinity of each such chain, we look backwards, and see its history over the preceding years � whether our candidate was preceded by certain seismicity patterns. If yes, we accept the candidate as a short-term precursor and start a nine-month alarm. If not, we disregard this candidate.�

�In seismically active regions, the Earth�s crust generates constant background seismicity, which the team monitors for the symptoms of approaching strong earthquakes. Specifically, they consider the following four symptoms: small earthquakes become more frequent in an area (not necessarily on the same fault line); earthquakes become more clustered in time and space; earthquakes occur almost simultaneously over large distances within a seismic region; and the ratio of medium-magnitude earthquakes to smaller earthquakes increases.�

The following is from the ANSS catalog and covers only the M>4.0 quakes and larger. Note that in 1992 the M>6.1 was preceded by an M>4.6 quake with a depth of 11.53Km. The depth of M>6.1 quake had a depth of 12.38Km. There were aftershocks with a depth of 10.00Km and 12.41Km. There has been only one other quake with a depth of 10.67Km and that was in 1995. The Coachella quake of 07/13/04 has a depth of 12.8Km.

catalog=ANSS
start_time=1992/01/01,00:00:00
end_time=2004/07/14,06:50:03
minimum_magnitude=4.0
maximum_magnitude=10
event_type=E
delta=0 km to 40 km from (33.711,-116.056)
Date Time Lat Lon Depth Mag Magt Nst Gap Clo RMS SRC Event ID
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1992/04/23 02:25:29.87 33.9562 -116.3175 11.53 4.60 Mc 121 0.23 CI 2047709
1992/04/23 04:50:23.22 33.9612 -116.3175 12.38 6.10 Mc 151 0.27 CI 3019681
1992/04/23 05:10:28.09 33.9577 -116.3297 3.18 4.40 Mc 32 0.17 CI 3027826
1992/04/23 11:32:33.22 33.9710 -116.3217 0.84 4.00 Mc 16 0.19 CI 3122460
1992/04/24 12:36:05.74 33.9460 -116.3790 10.00 4.20 Mb 28 0.94 NEI 199204244040
1992/05/02 12:46:41.42 33.9893 -116.2868 3.97 4.10 Mc 85 0.20 CI 2050243
1992/05/04 01:16:02.56 33.9393 -116.3408 5.80 4.10 Mc 96 0.21 CI 2050538
1992/05/04 16:19:49.72 33.9412 -116.3042 12.41 4.80 Mc 105 0.22 CI 2050647
1992/05/06 02:38:43.35 33.9427 -116.3145 6.85 4.70 Mc 124 0.23 CI 2050937
1992/05/12 02:31:11.01 33.9815 -116.2597 6.65 4.50 Mc 96 0.22 CI 2051863
1992/05/12 02:31:27.94 33.9795 -116.2592 0.21 4.40 Mc 23 0.28 CI 3024922
1992/05/12 02:32:52.54 33.9848 -116.2582 4.89 4.00 Mc 54 0.22 CI 3024923
1992/05/18 15:44:17.97 33.9510 -116.3375 6.57 5.00 Mc 137 0.25 CI 2052730
1992/06/29 16:01:42.77 33.8755 -116.2670 1.80 4.80 Mc 71 0.24 CI 3031649
1992/06/29 20:07:35.45 33.8890 -116.2895 2.50 4.10 Mc 80 0.24 CI 3031728
1992/07/24 18:14:36.25 33.9013 -116.2848 8.24 5.00 Mc 169 0.22 CI 3046661
1992/07/24 18:15:27.01 33.8943 -116.2850 3.33 4.00 Mc 12 0.19 CI 3047951
1992/07/25 04:31:59.93 33.9368 -116.3062 4.68 4.80 Mc 139 0.24 CI 3046818
1992/09/09 12:50:45.14 33.9473 -116.3303 5.25 4.30 Mc 79 0.20 CI 3060932
1994/08/07 15:10:25.96 33.9920 -116.2740 7.03 4.00 ML 80 0.16 CI 3179522
1995/05/07 11:03:33.04 33.9050 -116.2880 10.67 4.80 ML 171 0.24 CI 3212249
1996/11/27 01:42:43.82 33.9530 -116.3140 6.02 4.46 ML 122 0.22 CI 7050391
1999/09/02 17:45:07.40 33.7920 -116.1290 2.78 4.44 h 11 0.16 CI 9103686

The following M>6.0+ are quakes that have occurred with a 40Km radius of the 07/13/04 M>4.0 quake.

catalog=ANSS
start_time=1898/01/01,00:00:00
end_time=2004/07/14,07:01:19
minimum_magnitude=6.0
maximum_magnitude=10
event_type=E
delta=0 km to 40 km from (33.711,-116.056)
Date Time Lat Lon Depth Mag Magt Nst Gap Clo RMS SRC Event ID
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1937/03/25 16:49:01.83 33.4085 -116.2615 10.00 6.00 ML 0 0.00 CI ��
1948/12/04 23:43:17.00 33.9333 -116.3833 0.00 6.00 ML 0 0.00 CI 0
1992/04/23 04:50:23.22 33.9612 -116.3175 12.38 6.10 Mc 151 0.27 CI 3019681

Now all that is needed is for someone who can more accurately pinpoint the location of the next large quake. Is there going to be a next large quake? Only time will tell. However it is refreshing to see that there are scientists who aren�t afraid to step to the forefront and lay it all on the line. It�s a in your face kind of prediction. It�s all there for everyone to see. Take Care�Don in creepy town

• Southern California Earthquake Prediction