Yeah sounds very informative...you said they said that the Hayward Fault is getting more robust but you dont' see it. Yeah the news people need to do a better job in defining what EXACTLY they mean by that so that the viewer can be educated and make up their own mind. But, IMO, the last 12 years there has been interesting activity on that segment. Several 2s, 1s and about 2 or 3 4+ tremors. I don't know for sure, MAYBE that is what they mean by being more robust.

Also, even though they do carbon dating of rocks found at rupture zones prior to 1868, they REALLY don't know when exactly the last quake was before. So in a sense 130 year intervals is an educated guess...but...we just don't know for sure. For all we know the fault may hang on for another 100 to 200 more years.

It would be interesting to see if 10,000 years from now after they have collected data the way they do now and after seeing the true rupture patterns of the fauls in CA if they would statistically be able to predict within months a large quake. Out of curiousity, do they not have better forecasting abilities in ancient world countries like Turkey or China where they have kept records of quakes last 1000 years?