First, I am now fairly confident that the earthquake forecasting procedure I have developed is working. It compares certain types of numbers associated with earthquake precursor signals such as Ear Tones with the same types of numbers for past earthquakes. And when they match that indicates that another earthquake could be about to occur near where that past one occurred.

I feel that this procedure did an extraordinarily good job of pointing to where that destructive December 22, 2003 California earthquake could occur. And signals detected in just the past few days pointed right to the location of the following strongly felt earthquake:

2004/02/04 03:24:01 23.37N 121.97E 5.5 Taiwan
(NEIS data)

Second, there are two major technical problems with my program at the moment:

1. I am not yet aware of what all the rules are for matching precursors with past earthquakes. This procedure produces extremely good results for some precursor and earthquake pairs. But I do not yet understand what the links are between some other precursors and earthquakes. I can see that they are probably linked but don’t know what type of data processing routine to use to connect them. Better routines need to be developed. And for that to be done a better understanding of the geophysical processes involved with the procedure would probably be helpful.

2. The computer programs which generate all of the data need to be improved and made available to researchers around the world. And this is where some rapid progress is presently being made.

The work could best be done at a Web site where CGI and Perl (or whatever) programs could be stored for download and actually used at the site. And I have Perl running now though I do not yet know how to use it effectively. And I believe I now know how to find a Web site where the CGI and Perl applications can be developed and stored. At the moment I am trying to see if I can form an informal alliance with some Perl – CGI experts so that we could actually get such a Web site up and running. If so then I would probably begin contacting people around the world and asking them to develop and submit routines for display and use at the site.

Keep your fingers crossed on this!