Team

This issue comes up from time to time: the credibility of prediction of earthquakes.

First of all, I don't think anyone here has the credibility that would move an American municipality to evacuate the town, as happened in China.

Friends on other boards claim 60-70% accuracy under certain conditions for 3-4M quakes. It takes 70-80% protection to get people to take an influenza vaccine.

With the solar electron flux people here are advocating (my interpretation) that an index dip in the graph might be related to a quake four or five quakes down the pike. If those other quakes were in the 5M range, I think people would laugh our heads off.

On the other hand since USGS seismologists have an excellent string of documented quakes, they have a place to start building a reputation in prediction. But then there is the problem as in China if one prediction was correct, and the next totally missed with massive casualties, credibility goes out the window.

In essence, I just wonder how any one person or agency can ever be credible for earthquake prediction.

I post this because this question keeps coming up since I began in seismology boards ten years ago.

Donald