Petra;

You are mistaken. I said no such thing.

I said:

----------------------------------------
You may develop a system that allows you to predict quakes and find that you're correct 1/3 of the time. You would think you're onto something when the chances of hitting by chance ARE 1/3 in that area.
----------------------------------------

as an example of why I use probability to determine success in predicting. I did not intend to say that these numbers were true for you.

Indeed, since I have not evaluated your predictions, I have no idea how well you're doing.

Roger