Seismic Activity expected

http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/20416.html

Large numbers of Ear Tone signals

http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/20493.html

After a lengthy period of quiet a strong warning signal was detected on 2003/11/07 05:56:00 UTC. I thought that it could be significant. And in addition to posting that November 8 note here I circulated a formal warning to different organizations and governments around the world.

The following is why I am stating that this was an exceptionally accurate forecast:

The data processing procedures which I use with my forecasting program compare warning signals with past earthquakes. They assign probabilities to each past earthquake based on how well it matched the warning signal. And they then generate a table listing the highest probability earthquakes. The score range is 0 to 14 with 14 being the highest rating.

The following is probability table that was generated when I ran that November 7 warning signal through my programs:

PR   Probability Rating

EDF  Earthquake Data Fingerprint Numbers – Columns 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

SEM  Sun – Earth – Moon angle



Warning Signal Data

##   32  21  75  61  16  03/11/07 
05:56:00  UTC



PR   EDF                
Date      Mag Lon Lat Location         
SEM

12   30  17  76  59  13  02/05/24 
3.3   74 45  NEW YORK        
160

12   36  20  78  57  13  01/07/03 
3.9  117 34  CALIFORNIA       156

14   34  20  79  62  15  02/05/24 
3.8  121 37  CALIFORNIA       157

11   30  21  88  77  32  02/03/16 
4.6  119 34  CALIFORNIA       
31

11   33  24   6  79  34  02/05/14 
3.5  123 39  CALIFORNIA       
29

11   30  22  93  76  30  02/09/08 
5.1 -144 -3  PAPUA NEW GUINEA  26

11   32  21  93  78  35  03/05/04 
5.8  -77 39  CHINA            
34

My data processing programs compare those EDF number for the earthquakes with the ones for the warning signal(s).

Here is the earthquake that just occurred followed by the one which received the highest rating in that table.

2003/12/22 19:15:56 35.71N 121.10W 6.5 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
2002/05/24 17:44:01 36.55N 121.13W 3.8 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
(NEIS data)

Remember, several thousand earthquakes occurring around the world during the past decade or so were compared with those warning signal data and given a probability rating. And a score of 14 for that earthquake as compared with 12 for the next highest one is impressive. And the fact that my data processing procedures identified that one earthquake as being the best match out of all of the earthquakes in my database is in my opinion extraordinary!

The following earthquake also received a high score in my tests based on a signal detected on December 13:

2001/08/11 12:01:31 39.89N 120.58W 3.9 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

The following are some additional data for this earthquake. Note – I believe that these data are accurate. However there is no guarantee of that, especially with the ocean tide crest and trough location data.

2003/12/22  19:15:56 35.71N
121.10W 7.6 6.5 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA



At that time:



23.43S 109.00W Subsolar Point lat and lon

26.85S 119.00W Sublunar Point lat and lon

26.00S 116.00W Gravity  Point lat and lon



Ocean tides crests or troughs occurred in the Los Angeles area at:



2003/12/22 15:32:00 and 2003/12/22 22:52:00  UTC



Solid Earth Tide crest and trough location data for:



UTC 2003/12/22 19:15:56 35.71N 121.10W



Height

46W  117W (121W) 173E  65E

-219  -57 ( -58) -213  395



Vertical Acceleration

 47W 117W (121W) 174E   65E

1103  320 ( 325) 1073 -1976

I ran two dozen Ear Tones times that people sent me during the past few months through my programs. And here are the highest probability West Coast earthquake locations which it identified. The most recent one on that list is the earthquake which just occurred.

EQ Date    
Mag  lon  lat  PR

2003/12/22  6.5  121W 36N  12

2003/12/15  3.8  129W 44N  11

2003/11/12  5.7  113W 29N  13

2003/08/03  4.2  123W 39N  12

2003/05/26  3.7  120W 37N  11

2003/11/08  3.5  119W 35N  12

2002/09/21  4.2  123W 48N  11

2002/05/01  4.8  129W 44N  11

2002/02/22  5.7  115W 32N  11



I myself detected other signals such as Ear Tones which matched that earthquake. They are not being listed here as it would require too much effort.

The following is a Wave Chart based on the warning signal which was detected on November 7. As can be seen, it did a good job of identifying a higher probability date for the earthquake.

http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/images/305.html

A frequent response to this type of note is “You didn’t forecast that earthquake because you didn’t say exactly when, where, what magnitude” etc.

My responses to that are the following:

First, at the moment my primary goal is not to generate perfect forecasts but to instead let other people know that they need to check for some approaching seismic activity. And if people had been able to do that after seeing my warnings then perhaps some of what resulted from that earthquake might have been avoided.

Second, no one would consider it to be reasonable to demand that a single weather forecaster without any help accurately predict all of the weather taking place around the world. So, why would anyone expect one person to be able to accurately predict every important earthquake in every detail, especially since the forecasts are being generated and circulated for free? At this time I believe that accurate, reliable forecasts require the efforts of multiple parties.