Hi Petra. In most of the countries that are active in earthquake prediction they have a body set up that will evaluate any data they get from their seismologist and based on that they will make an advisory. Here in the US the USGS is charged with that responsibility. Of course they don’t go it alone. In California they get assistance from the University of Berkeley as well as some other Universities. In China it’s the China Seismological Bureau, in Japan it’s the “Wise 6.” It’s kind of unique the way Japan does it. They hold a conference once a month and give the status of the various quake prediction sites. When the astronomer made his prediction a couple of months ago they were besieged with phones calls from the media wanting to know if it was true. A big waste of time if you ask me. The same thing happened here when some people were making their predictions. USGS would get the phone calls asking them if they thought it was going to happen. In some ways it’s a lot harder to explain why something may not happen as opposed to it will happen.

I’m sure there are a lot of people who have good intentions when they make quake predictions, but the road to Hell is paved with good intentions.

Browning predicted a earthquake of magnitude 7 would strike the area of the New Madrid Fault Zone on December 3, 1990.

Browning presented his prediction in his newsletters and during talks to businessmen. It is important to note that the standard scientific methodology of publishing articles to be evaluated by other scientists was ignored.

Browning's prediction made the leap from hypothesis to prediction without the intervening process of showing verifiable evidence and hypothesis testing.

Browning believed that peaks of tidal loading in the solid earth could trigger earthquakes in regions of high tectonic stress, just as if the trigger of a gun were pulled.
He calculated which latitudinal bands of the Earth would be subject to high amplitudes of tidal loading, and he found specific locations within the bands being studied for possible recurrence of large earthquakes.

Browning's prediction for New Madrid on December 2-3, 1990 was based on a particular high tide that was to occur at coincident times relating to alignment of the moon, sun and earth. But when in 1964 and 1982 the tidal loading was very similar to that for his predicted dates, no significant earthquakes occurred.

David Stewart, Center for Earthquake Studies at SE Missouri St. said "It will be a tragedy if what Dr. Browning has forecast comes true on December 3. It could be a worse tragedy, though, if it does not happen and people become cynical and unmotivated in earthquake preparation so that when the destructive quake does come, they are not ready."

Schools were closed and people evacuated as December 3 approached.

The daily lives of millions were disturbed, as New Madrid became a major public spectacle.

Quake related psychological problems emerged.

Area children evidenced widespread public panic instead of rationality

People instantly became more religious as they feared the coming of "the end."

A public mistrust of scientists? Of the media?

In many ways though Iben Browning doesn’t deserve all the credit, or the blame for the turmoil he started. In many ways the media did more damage then he did. They ran with his prediction and hyped it. It’s called “creative editing.” Most are guilty of it. The motivation is most likely to generate more sales of newspapers. In many ways bad quake predictions can do more harm then good. Take Care…Don in creepy town

• Iben Browning